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瓴張磊內部演講筆記(2)
靈活性-開始投資時他只有一個投資人，雖然可以利用Swensen的背書募集更多的錢，他沒有這么做。希望可以有100%的靈活性去投資他相信并且有激情的東西，不管是股票，風險投資還是PE�！靶问讲恢匾�，內容才關鍵”。他相信通才模式，并以自己是分析師的一員而自豪。
Long Term Orientation - Hillhouse is a long-term investor. Lei thinks that when you have a long-term orientation, from day one you have a huge advantage over most people - it’s what he calls free option value of time arbitrage. His view on the Chinese stock market at the time of this speech? “It’s like 1999 all over again, but times three.” The environment is so bubbly that any company that changes its name into something internet related could get an elevated multiple on their valuations. Some say long-term investing does not work in China because everybody trades so much. Speaking at one mutual fund conference, some managers asked Lei “how do you make so much money despite being a long term investor” (everyone in the room laughed really hard on this comment)。 Some Chinese mutual fund managers complain to regulators, “I know you want long term investors, but we need to make money, we have a fiduciary duty.” The understanding of long-term investing in China is so distorted, people think there is a cost to being a long-term investor.
長期導向-長期投資者有巨大的優(yōu)勢，張磊所謂時間套利的期權價值�，F(xiàn)在中國的股市就像1999年，還要乘三倍。任何股票改個名字沾上互聯(lián)網，估值立即翻幾倍。有些人說長期投資在中國不管用，因為大家交易太頻繁。
Bias Toward Inaction - But how does Hillhouse find high quality names? The way is to do deep fundamental value research and only research things that could potentially compound value over time. There are many people in China that are successful at trading, but traders have capacity issues because they have to trade all the time. In China, an average portfolio manager has 600% annual turnover, Lei’s public equity portfolio has only 15% turnover and he continues to own his private equity portfolio. Hillhouse does not attempt to constantly chase different horses. In a given year, Hillhouse takes on 2-4 positions at best and sometimes only one. By taking away the action, Lei believes you simplify your life and the investment business, and you let the portfolio compound for you instead of you doing the work. By being patient and not too active, he was able to accumulate a portfolio of high quality names.
不活躍投資-如何找到好質量的公司?方法是基礎研究而且只研究價值長時間能復合增長的領域。在中國，基金經理的組合平均一年流轉6次，張磊的只有15%并且繼續(xù)投資私有公司。Hillhouse不去追逐不同的馬。一年最多投2~4個，有時1個。去除了頻繁投資，張磊相信生活和投資都會簡單化，讓投資組合去掙錢而不是自己不停的工作。通過耐心和低頻投資，他積累了一個高質量公司的組合。
2.Deviation from Traditional Value Investing Philosophies (和傳統(tǒng)價值投資哲學的分離)
Investing in changes - Lei Zhang is a big believer in value investing, but where he deviates from the traditional value investing philosophy is that he likes investing in changes. He believes that it is change that derives value and he would like to invest in people driving them. In particular with China, and globally as well, technology has become a bigger part of the game, either in traditional or new industries. Changes are driving forces for creative destruction and value creation. He spends a lot of time understanding the changes and the people behind them. Lei says that one thing about investing in early stage company is that some companies look distracted on the outside, but if you look at the core they are intensely focused. On the other hand, the traditional sense of value investing represented by Warren Buffet dislikes changes and prefers long-term stable businesses with strong moat, hence why Warren ends up with big positions in names like in Coca Cola, Amex, Wells Fargo, and IBM.
投資變化-張磊深信價值投資，但與傳統(tǒng)價值投資哲學不同，他喜歡投資變化。他認為變化產生價值，并且要投資那些驅動變化的人。特別在中國，技術已經成為游戲更重要的一部分，不管在傳統(tǒng)還是新的行業(yè)。他花很多的時間研究變化和背后的人。很多早期公司從外面看似乎很分散，內部實際很集中。以巴菲特為代表的傳統(tǒng)價值投資不喜歡變化，喜歡有護城河的長期穩(wěn)定的公司，所以巴菲特的組合是可口可樂，Amex等(插一句，如果Hillouse的管理資金到了巴菲特的程度，投資變化也會是個問題，因為體量不夠)
Example 1: Blue Moon and JD.com. Blue Moon is in a traditional business, liquid laundry detergent. Hillhouse would never have invested in it if everything is done the same way, as there is P&G and Uniliver, which you invest in for their brand value and moat. After investing in Blue Moon, Lei arranged its executives to meet with those from JD, having Blue Moon learning about ecommerce from JD and have JD learning about merchandising from Blue Moon. Subsequently, Blue Moon redesigned its detergent packs so that they could fit into JD’s delivery bins. Leveraging social media and ecommerce, Blue Moon achieved the largest brand build up in years and now is the largest liquid detergent brand in China.
Value Investing Taken to the Next Level - Lei believes his approach is value investing taken to the next Level. In addition to investing in changes and long-term fundamental value, he also wants to compound that value by participating in the value creation process via deep research. The traditional Ben Graham value mismatch alone is not good enough (current price vs. intrinsic value)， he wants to grow that value mismatch over time, not just to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity. To this end, Lei thinks his approach is more like constructive (or suggestive) activism, though Lei rejects the notion that he is an activist. For him, the traditional sense of activism falls into the category of “l(fā)ife is too short” (too much work and headache? Ackman’s battle with Herbal life comes to mind)。
案例一：投資藍月亮，撮合藍月亮和京東，藍月亮學習電商和社交媒體，在很短的時間里成為最大的品牌。
更高層次的價值投資-張磊相信他的價值投資更高一個層次。除了投資變化和長期的基礎價值，他希望通過參與價值創(chuàng)造過程和深度研究來實現(xiàn)更高的價值。傳統(tǒng)的Ben Graham的價值不匹配(價格和內在價值的差異)是不夠的，他希望能增長價值，而不是僅僅利用這種價值套利的機會。
Example 2: Strategic partnership between Tencent and JD.com.
Lei is an early investor in both companies and brought many senior executives to JD, Tencent was one of one of Hillhouse’s earliest investments and remains in the portfolio. In 2013, Lei saw a new trend - JD had a great retail gene, but was having difficulty confronting mobile commerce on the technology front. On the other hand, Tencent had just acquired an ecommerce business. The core problem is that Pony Ma had never dealt with inventory before and suddenly had lots of physical goods on hand. Lei brought the two companies together, summarizing their problems with one word each, mobile vs. inventory. The solution is for Tencent to hand inventory to JD and JD to hand mobile to Tencent. Pony and Richard hated each other and had been fighting to win the ecommerce war, but the deal just makes all the sense.
Through research, Hillhouse was able to present and close the biggest ecommerce deal at the time. In the process, Hillhouse did get diluted, but got a lot of certainty for both companies out of it. The idea is through research, you could present to founders compelling ideas and add value in the process. Through this example, Lei conveyed that he loves entrepreneurs that are confident, open-minded, and willing to learn from competitors.
案例二：張磊投資了京東和騰訊，騰訊至今仍然在組合中。2013年，張磊看到京東有很強的零售基因，但是移動電子商務不強。另一方面，騰訊剛剛收購了易迅，但馬化騰從來沒有處理過庫存。張磊把兩個公司拉倒一起，各用一個詞總結了他們的問題：移動VS庫存。雖然雙方以前互相打，合作對雙方有利。
通過研究，Hillhouse撮合了但是最大的電子商務交易。雖然其股份稀釋了，但是兩家公司的確定性增強了。這是研究的價值。張磊喜歡自信，開放同時又喜歡像競爭對手學習的創(chuàng)業(yè)家。
Example 3: WeChat moves into Southeast Asia.
In Indonesia, for example, Lei helped create a joint venture between Tencent’s WeChat and Global Mediacom, Indonesia’s largest media, television and pay TV conglomerate. At the time, WeChat was behind Facebook Messenger, WhatsApp, and Line in user count, and today has surpassed the first two and is on par with Line. Again, Lei emphasized that he found the opportunity through “research.”
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